NFL Locks week 3

This is day where I post my NFL betting locks for the weekend. I usually do Thursday night’s game and then the Vikings game on Sunday.

But I’m not gonna sit here and pretend I know anything, or give a shit, about the Jaguars-Dolphins game tonight.

So I’m gonna pick a Sunday game or two…

I guess this is one of those sucker plays. Maybe ‘a trap game.’ But I’m gonna fall right in. Last week my logic with picking against the Browns was that I’d never bet them against anyone if they are the favorites. Turned out I was right. So this week I’m looking at things the same way but through the opposite end of the spectrum.

Monday night the Chiefs play the Ravens. The Ravens are 3.5 point favorites. I understand all indications are the Ravens have a very good team again this year, but I don’t get how the Chiefs ever step out onto the field right now as underdogs. Maybe that’s what Vegas is counting on everyone thinking and the Ravens win by 14. But I’ll take the bait. I’ll take Kansas City anytime they’re an underdog if their QB is healthy. Give me Kansas City +3.5.

The other game is Sunday Night. The Packers defense is underrated. It kills me to say that. The Saints appear to be tailing off a bit. Rodgers appears to be on a mission this year after seeing who the team decided to draft in the first round. The Packers are 3 point underdogs. I like them to win. Give me the Packers +3.

Now to my bread and butter. I was certainly wrong about the Vikings game last week. I thought both teams would have a chance to win and it would come down to a last second field goal. The Vikings weren’t competitive.

They play the Titans this week. Tennessee is favored by 2.5 points. I think the Vikings defense is just too weak. I think the offense will play a lot better this week, but they’ll have to play absolutely perfect to compensate for that defense and stay competitive, and I don’t think they’ll do that. In addition to the defense being outmatched they now have some significant injuries on that side of the ball as well. With Barr and Dye now on IR there is a good chance I’ll have no idea who the starting linebacker on the outside is until kickoff Sunday. And it’s a guarantee I’ll have never heard of him before then. Give me the Titans -2.5.

I really hope I’m wrong though. C’mon Vikes. Hang in there.

Bonus Pick: Chiefs-Ravens over 54.5